Jan. 6 Frightens Me, Because of What May Come Next

We quelled the insurrection a year ago. But we haven't defeated the larger assault on democracy.

Whenever I look at videos of the Jan. 6 insurrection, I can’t help thinking about what might have transpired.

What if the rioters attacking the Capitol had managed to seize Speaker Nancy Pelosi? What if Capitol Police Officer Eugene Goodman had not diverted the mob from the United States Senate? What if staff members had not taken the box of electoral votes with them before both chambers were overrun? One can imagine some of America’s most prominent politicians murdered, electoral votes disappearing, and God only knows what happening next.

The January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol (Creative Commons)

Jan. 6th wasn't a one-off incident of political violence. Instead, a dangerous norm of using violence and threats to achieve political aims has spread. In Michigan, we saw a conspiracy by militia members to kidnap Governor Gretchen Witmer.

And here in Oregon, there was a violent convulsion in December 2020 that foreshadowed Jan. 6: In Salem, a state lawmaker allowed angry right-wing rioters into the State Capitol. Those rioters then clashed with police and attacked at least one officer with bear spray. Six months later, that lawmaker was finally and rightfully expelled from the state House of Representatives (a first).

We prevented those episodes from spiraling out of control, but a more slow-moving one has engulfed us since. It’s as if an acid was poured over our democratic machinery and is slowly eating at it. That’s why we should focus not just on the drama of Jan. 6 itself but above all on the ongoing threat to our democratic norms and processes.

Extremist Republicans have pursued a two track approach to undermining democratic elections. First, they have rolled back voting rights, by limiting mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes. Second, they have pushed for mechanisms that allow legislatures or officials to overturn a vote that they don’t like. For example, in Arkansas a “board of election commissioners” with six Republicans and one Democrat will be allowed to take “corrective action” when it finds irregularities. What’s an irregularity? Maybe a Democratic win.

We must resist "both-sidesism." The political system is not symmetrical. The spread of political violence is primarily driven by the right.

We all suffer from selection bias and confirmation bias. But the basic principle of my journalistic career (and my fledgling political career) has been that there are objective realities, however elusive they may be. I try hard to tamp down my biases and pursue those realities. If the facts don’t fit my narrative, I amend my narrative, not the facts.

But today’s Republican Party amends the facts instead, such that fewer than half of Republicans today accept the results of the 2020 election. Astonishingly, two-thirds of Republicans said in a NPR/Ipsos poll that "voter fraud helped Joe Biden win the 2020 election"; that’s just a falsehood.

In reporting from China, North Korea and other repressive countries, I’ve seen how officials use the propaganda apparatus and Big Lie technique to manipulate the public. I never imagined I’d see it in the United States, with a partnership between some G.O.P. politicians and some Fox News celebrities who know better. Fox News is a bit like Pro Wrestling, in that the performers all know it’s fake and do it for the ratings — but viewers believe it’s real rather than entertainment, and that has become toxic.

We saw what that toxicity can lead to on Jan. 6. Almost one-third of Trump voters said in the NPR/Ipsos poll that “it is OK to engage in violence to protect American democracy.”

One might think that radicalization of one of America’s political parties, to the point of mass delusion, would damage its standing with voters and leave it uncompetitive. But a troubling new Morning Consult poll finds that equal shares of the public rate the Democratic Party and the Republican Party as on the right track (34 percent in each case).

There are no magic solutions, of course, but I think it would help if there were more pressure from advertisers and the public on “news organizations” and Web sites not to carry misinformation that inflames people toward violence. Public pressure forced Fox News to dump Bill O’Reilly, and I’d like to see similar public pressure on companies that advertise on Fox News and on cable companies like Verizon and AT&T that blindly carry and profit from toxic content. Similar pressure can be brought to bear on companies that carry podcasts that nurture toxicity and violence.

The same public pressure can increase the likelihood of passage of federal voting rights legislation, now stalled, and perhaps can also influence the courts in their review of state laws that could overturn voters’ choices.

I also believe the public should hold news organizations accountable if and when they incorrectly suggest that both parties are equally liable for misinformation and violence. I’ve been arguing since 2016 that the news media too often quote from one side and then from the other in a way that suggests an equivalence between, say, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, when every reporter knows that there was no comparison. Trump not only lied constantly but also was indifferent to truth and falsity, and it’s up to journalists to be watchdogs over our political system.

Stopping the spread of misinformation and violence is also a personal obligation. Readers know that I’m a believer in challenging statements of deluded friends and family, whether in person or on Facebook. I know this is hard and can lead to hurt feelings on all sides, but I’ve seen that this — done nimbly, so as not to put people on the defensive — can have an effect.

I also think that we all could do more listening. Here in Oregon, Senators Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley hold a town hall in every county every year, and that includes deeply red parts of the state. They don’t win many votes in these counties or change many minds, but it’s a gesture of respect that can lower temperatures. If I’m elected governor, I’d want to do the same, while also working to work with those communities to outline an economic vision to provide more opportunity. When people feel listened to, respected and a bit more hopeful for their children’s future, they may become less distrustful, and it may be easier to build bridges across the urban-rural divide. (It’s not a coincidence that Oregon’s poorest county, rural Lake County, is also the one with the lowest Covid vaccination rate: Only 45 percent of residents have had at least one shot.)

I don’t know how well these approaches will work in lowering tensions and preserving democracy, but we have to try. It’s possible to do a lot of listening while also standing up to the G.O.P., fighting to preserve democracy, and calling out companies that monetize the corrosion of our democracy.

I’ve seen in my international reporting how conflicts escalate and countries become unglued. When you’ve spent a career covering civil warfare and terrorism, wandering through burned villages and talking your way through checkpoints, you believe passionately that we must be alert to early warning signs and do everything possible to avoid violent conflict in your own country.

So a year later, that’s what Jan. 6 evokes in me: not just a horror of what unfolded a year ago, but a deep unease about what may lie ahead unless we all do our utmost to stop it.

(I’m using these newsletters to touch on broader issues, not to press my present campaign for governor. So I’m not going to hit you here up for donations. But if you want to visit my campaign website, check out NickforOregon.com.)