Is Putin in Trouble?
And if so, will he use artillery to make Ukrainians suffer even more?
The initial answer to the headline question seems to be yes, Putin is in a certain amount of trouble. It’s early in the war and he may get himself out of it. But the war, at least in its opening days, does not seem to be going as smoothly as Putin had intended.
But before anyone celebrates too enthusiastically, take note of what Russia reportedly did in the major city of Kharkiv today. Russian troops had been repelled from Kharkiv, which is only 30 miles from the Russian border and had been expected by Moscow to be easy pickings (partly because many of its people are Russian speakers and traditionally more sympathetic to Moscow). So Russia today shelled Kharkiv and used cluster munitions that increase the toll on civilians. That’s one of my worries for what might lie ahead if Putin’s ground forces continue to struggle: He might respond by pounding Ukrainian cities into rubble, increasing the toll in human lives of his invasion.
Putin’s original aim apparently was to replicate what he did in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014: a lightning attack that overwhelmed local forces and underscored Russian might. Putin may also have deluded himself into thinking that many Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his forces (just as some American hawks in 2003 wrongly believed that Iraqis would welcome American troops with flowers).
But invading Ukraine is nothing like attacking Georgia or Crimea or even Syrian rebels. Ukraine has a modern army, enhanced with an air force, anti-tank missiles and Turkish drones, and Putin’s invasion has united Ukrainians in a determined effort to fight the invaders.
The result is a display of Russian weakness. Russian paratroopers did manage initially to seize Antonov airport near Kyiv, but then were dislodged by Ukrainian fighters before winning it back again. For now, Russians so far appear to have been repelled both in Kyiv and, even more surprisingly, in Kharkiv.
Journalists have shown photos of columns of Russian tanks and other equipment that have been destroyed. Social media has delighted in showing Russian military vehicles that have run out of gas or have lost their way, with Ukrainians cursing the Russians and offering them a tow back to Russia. Some accounts say that Russian soldiers have run out of food and supplies and have been breaking into homes so that they can eat.
Beyond its difficulty sustaining supply lines, Russia hasn’t even managed to entirely control the skies with its air force. Its army hasn’t shown a capability to fight at night, which is pretty basic for a modern military force. And it has lost the information war.
Beyond that, it’s unclear what Putin’s strategy is to avoid an occupation. Does he still think he can install a puppet and pull out? That seems unlikely, and Russian military planners must be unnerved by the scenes of Ukrainian gathering bottles to turn into Molotov cocktails.
Tanks aren’t all that useful in urban combat. They can’t easily shoot up at people in apartment buildings lining the streets, and a bucket of paint on the periscope leaves a tank blind. So if Russia’s forces try to occupy Kyiv for months on end, they should brace themselves.
It helps Ukraine that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has shown courage and strength in uniting the nation and remaining in the capital as it comes under attack. When Americans tried to evacuate him from Kyiv, he famously responded: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” If Russian snipers do manage to execute Zelensky, they will have created a martyr who will continue to inspire his people.
Meanwhile, Putin has been the opposite of inspiring: He is turning Russia into a pariah state, and turning Ukraine into a European country.
For many years, Ukraine has been snubbed by Europe, perceived as a corrupt backwater that nobody wants in NATO or in the European Union. But Putin and Zelensky have changed that, and country after country is sending weapons to Ukraine and holding supportive rallies for the Ukrainian people. At my mom’s church, the minister on Sunday wore yellow and blue, the Ukrainian colors, in a show of support.
Putin’s aim was to weaken NATO and divide Europe, but instead he has strengthened NATO and made Europe all the more determined to stand up to Putin. Even Germany has found more backbone. Everyone recognizes that if the world lets Putin get away with swallowing Ukraine, he will next grab Moldova and then nibble at NATO members like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That’s one reason it’s so important that Putin be made to fail.
Another reason is to discourage other leaders from marching into neighbors. That means you, Xi Jinping: Stop looking at Taiwan so covetously.
In the best case scenario, Russia’s invading forces would continue to struggle in Ukraine, even as sanctions cause increasing grumbling in Russia itself. A December poll in Russia had found that only 8 percent of the public supported invading Ukraine, and many Russians thought that Putin was only bluffing. As the ruble collapses, lines grow at ATMs, vacations in Europe become impossible, middle class Russians who previously supported Putin may change their minds.
Increasingly, Putin seems incompetent and perhaps addled. “I personally think he’s unhinged,” James Clapper Jr., the former Director of National Intelligence, said on CNN.
It would be delicious if Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine not only forced him to retreat from Ukraine but also led to his ouster and the birth of real democracy in Russia, just as the overreach of Argentine generals in the Falklands war led to the birth of democracy there. My fingers are crossed.
But that’s a hope, not a prediction. This is early in the war, and in the coming days Russian forces may turn the tide and crush the Ukrainian resistance. And I particularly worry that we’ll see more of the shelling that just took place in Kharkiv. Russia’s invaders have so far been restrained by the standards they showed in Chechnya or Syria (where they were noted for bombing hospitals). Putin might decide that if he can’t easily occupy Ukraine, he’ll just leave much of it in rubble.
And that again is why it’s so important that the world work together to arm the Ukrainian opposition, increase Russia’s pain and do all we can to make Putin fail.
Please keep up your marvelous writing to all of us and your excellent accounts of what is happening. You are our lifeline and I so appreciate what you write and say. I depend upon is. Thank you so much. Susan UIchigelle
The consensus on the invasion (that I've seen so far) is that Putin misjudged the anger that other countries have for an actual invasion of another country. There is a suspicion that he judged behavior on past examples - primarily the Chechen and Crimean invasions. He didn't plan for either Zelensky's resistance or the ability of the Ukrainian military. The Russians - in the Battle of Grozny (1994) - tried to use tanks and armored vehicles in the city without adequate infantry support. It is a recipe for disaster. A small (3 or 4 man) team can pick off a tank easily in a city if there is no infantry cover. The problem is that, if you send infantry in, you're into a block by block, street by street battle that is bad. The Russian military should remember that it cost them 80,000 troops killed and 200,000 wounded and 2000 tanks to take Berlin in WWII - they know urban street fighting is costly and slow.
So, faced with that history, you can sort of see why they needed a quick Blitzkrieg in the Ukraine. They didn't get it, and now they have a hard decision. Use of massive air and artillery strikes to "soften" the city, or possibly face heavy casualties (and loss of morale) if they don't. This, coupled with the sanctions imposed, means that fewer and fewer supplies will be available (or the civilian population in Russia will have increased difficulty.)
This whole scenario is complicated by the donation of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles by the Netherlands, Estonia and the US, as well as additional anti-tank weapons by most of the European littoral states. It's gonna be nasty being a Russian tank or BMP driver pretty soon.
Basically, Putin misjudged the ability if his troops and the reisstance of the Ukrainians. And the unity of the Europeans, along with the hesitancy of China, the defection of Orban in Hungary, the declaration by the Turks that this is a war (and hence, possibly closing the Bosporus) were all probably not anticipated by Putin. The closing of European airspace, the joint actions against the Russian Central Bank, the collapse of the ruble, the Swiss putting principle over principal- none of these were expected. It could prove a costly, and embarrassing, set of omissions.