Please keep up your marvelous writing to all of us and your excellent accounts of what is happening. You are our lifeline and I so appreciate what you write and say. I depend upon is. Thank you so much. Susan UIchigelle
The consensus on the invasion (that I've seen so far) is that Putin misjudged the anger that other countries have for an actual invasion of another country. There is a suspicion that he judged behavior on past examples - primarily the Chechen and Crimean invasions. He didn't plan for either Zelensky's resistance or the ability of the Ukrainian military. The Russians - in the Battle of Grozny (1994) - tried to use tanks and armored vehicles in the city without adequate infantry support. It is a recipe for disaster. A small (3 or 4 man) team can pick off a tank easily in a city if there is no infantry cover. The problem is that, if you send infantry in, you're into a block by block, street by street battle that is bad. The Russian military should remember that it cost them 80,000 troops killed and 200,000 wounded and 2000 tanks to take Berlin in WWII - they know urban street fighting is costly and slow.
So, faced with that history, you can sort of see why they needed a quick Blitzkrieg in the Ukraine. They didn't get it, and now they have a hard decision. Use of massive air and artillery strikes to "soften" the city, or possibly face heavy casualties (and loss of morale) if they don't. This, coupled with the sanctions imposed, means that fewer and fewer supplies will be available (or the civilian population in Russia will have increased difficulty.)
This whole scenario is complicated by the donation of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles by the Netherlands, Estonia and the US, as well as additional anti-tank weapons by most of the European littoral states. It's gonna be nasty being a Russian tank or BMP driver pretty soon.
Basically, Putin misjudged the ability if his troops and the reisstance of the Ukrainians. And the unity of the Europeans, along with the hesitancy of China, the defection of Orban in Hungary, the declaration by the Turks that this is a war (and hence, possibly closing the Bosporus) were all probably not anticipated by Putin. The closing of European airspace, the joint actions against the Russian Central Bank, the collapse of the ruble, the Swiss putting principle over principal- none of these were expected. It could prove a costly, and embarrassing, set of omissions.
I still believe this war can be won by propaganda--flooding Russian social media, or however they get their information, with graphic images of their dead and maimed troops. Even an autocratic dictator needs public support. And only an outraged public can dispose Putin. And Putin must be deposed. Think if Stalin had the nuclear button; Putin does and he's crazy enough to use it.
Thank you for this piece; I was not aware that Russia is being repelled by Ukrainian fighters. I'm praying and rooting for all Ukrainians; may God bless their country.
Thank you so much for your continued coverage of Putin’s war. I do appreciate your clear writing style and hope that you continue to educate me as often as possible.
Please keep up your marvelous writing to all of us and your excellent accounts of what is happening. You are our lifeline and I so appreciate what you write and say. I depend upon is. Thank you so much. Susan UIchigelle
The consensus on the invasion (that I've seen so far) is that Putin misjudged the anger that other countries have for an actual invasion of another country. There is a suspicion that he judged behavior on past examples - primarily the Chechen and Crimean invasions. He didn't plan for either Zelensky's resistance or the ability of the Ukrainian military. The Russians - in the Battle of Grozny (1994) - tried to use tanks and armored vehicles in the city without adequate infantry support. It is a recipe for disaster. A small (3 or 4 man) team can pick off a tank easily in a city if there is no infantry cover. The problem is that, if you send infantry in, you're into a block by block, street by street battle that is bad. The Russian military should remember that it cost them 80,000 troops killed and 200,000 wounded and 2000 tanks to take Berlin in WWII - they know urban street fighting is costly and slow.
So, faced with that history, you can sort of see why they needed a quick Blitzkrieg in the Ukraine. They didn't get it, and now they have a hard decision. Use of massive air and artillery strikes to "soften" the city, or possibly face heavy casualties (and loss of morale) if they don't. This, coupled with the sanctions imposed, means that fewer and fewer supplies will be available (or the civilian population in Russia will have increased difficulty.)
This whole scenario is complicated by the donation of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles by the Netherlands, Estonia and the US, as well as additional anti-tank weapons by most of the European littoral states. It's gonna be nasty being a Russian tank or BMP driver pretty soon.
Basically, Putin misjudged the ability if his troops and the reisstance of the Ukrainians. And the unity of the Europeans, along with the hesitancy of China, the defection of Orban in Hungary, the declaration by the Turks that this is a war (and hence, possibly closing the Bosporus) were all probably not anticipated by Putin. The closing of European airspace, the joint actions against the Russian Central Bank, the collapse of the ruble, the Swiss putting principle over principal- none of these were expected. It could prove a costly, and embarrassing, set of omissions.
Can you give us suggestions on how we can financially help Ukraine?
Bravo, Nicholas Kristof
Even Switzerland is sending military assistance breaking 1100 years of neutrality! May they also freeze all the Russian accounts!
I still believe this war can be won by propaganda--flooding Russian social media, or however they get their information, with graphic images of their dead and maimed troops. Even an autocratic dictator needs public support. And only an outraged public can dispose Putin. And Putin must be deposed. Think if Stalin had the nuclear button; Putin does and he's crazy enough to use it.
Great article. I so agree.
Thank you.
Spoken from your heart and mine as well. Bless you for this!
Thank you for this piece; I was not aware that Russia is being repelled by Ukrainian fighters. I'm praying and rooting for all Ukrainians; may God bless their country.
You need a podcast. But not on Spotify.
I'm worried about nuclear retaliation.
Please let us know how to help Ukrainians as best as we can! Thank you.
A balanced analysis that gives insight into Russian intention, strengths& weaknesses. Thanks for the write up which separated chaff from wheat
Thank you for sharing - I always appreciate reading your thoughts
Rita
Thank you so much for your continued coverage of Putin’s war. I do appreciate your clear writing style and hope that you continue to educate me as often as possible.
Excellent as usual. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!